Hey Reader,

I hope you've been well!

I'm thrilled to let you know that I'm releasing something big on Wednesday!💯

I've received hundreds of requests for it in the past 3-4 years. I'm confident that it will be an extremely valuable resource for you and help you to excel as a trader and get a few steps closer to building financial freedom.💰

To celebrate the launch, I'm going to offer a $100 discount to the first 300 subscribers.🚀

I can't wait to share all the details with you on Wednesday!👀

Stay tuned.

In the meantime, here are some trading and investing insights, analysis, and trade ideas that I have promised to send you every Sunday.

Alright! Let's analyze the market, before I give some trading ideas for the coming week.

Overall the market has been in a small and boring range for about 6 weeks: ES has been trading between 4080 and 4210 from March 31 until today.

See the ES daily chart below👇

Click on this link to open the chart on a separate window: https://www.tradingview.com/x/FHwCSIrS/​

ES - the 4190-4210 level is now a major resistance(RS) and supply zone(SZ), and 4080 has become a very strong support(SP) level. These levels were not broken even after this week's CPI and PPI data, consumer sentiment, or April's FOMC data.

This horizontal and small 120-point range does not present decent trading opportunities. If you pay attention to the chart, we have had only 8 unidirectional days in the past 6 days; the remaining 23 days were not directional, mainly doji candles.

There is a lot of uncertainty in the market, which can lead to traders being reluctant to make any moves. Not directional days can be frustrating for traders, as they can be difficult to make money when the market is not moving.

👉 However, If we are trading in a not directional market, it is important to be patient and to not make any rash decisions. It is also important to have a clear trading plan in place, so that we know what we will do if the market does start to move. Until then, we have to trade with a small position size and be patient and wait for the market to move in our favor.

As Warren Buffet once said:

I believe bulls are doing their best to hold the 4080 critical level until the Fed decides to cut interest rates. That is what they are hopeful about. However, I do not think the Fed will cut rates so soon when the CPI is still so high.

Whether we breakout above 4210 or below 4080, it will cause a significant move after this 6-week long consolidation. We need a daily close above above 4210 with a strong volume to form a new HH (higher high) to confirm a breakout(BO) up and target 4300 RS. And similarly, we need a daily close below 4080 to form a new LL (lower low) to confirm a BO down and form a new leg down to 4000-3960 major SP levels and demand zone(DZ).

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My levels on ES for the week of May 15-19:

1. 📈 If bulls break above 4210 and hold it, then 4210 will become a new SP level. Therefore we can look for entering some calls by targeting 4300-4310 RS.
2. 📉 If bears break below 4080 level and hold it, then my next major SP levels are 4000-3960.

We will not hit these SP and RS levels in direct line or in a day; that's why I call them 'major' levels. Before we reach 4310 RS, bulls need to capture 4230-4260-4280 RS levels. and before we reach to 3960 SP, bears need to recapture 4050-4030-4000-3980 SP levels.

Look at the size of the high volume node(HVN) around 4150 level, and the volume shelf between 4130-4160. If bulls fail to hold 4150-4130, there is a huge volume gap down to 4000-3980.

Usually, I do not make my trading decisions and/or create any trading plan based on only ES futures. Besides ES, I also analyze NQ, Dow Jones (MYM) and Russell 2000 (RTY) futures before I enter any trade. Let's analyze those ones too.

See the NQ daily chart below👇

Click on this link to open the chart on a separate window: https://www.tradingview.com/x/a3du8rF1/​

NQ has been forming a huge rising wedge since Sep 2022. It's up about 25% this year when the small caps (IWM or RTY) are still in downtrend and the overall macroeconomic data is not supporting this move.
​
​The combined weight of AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, META, and NVDA in the S&P 500 (SPY) is approximately 26.5%.

However, the combined weight of AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, META, and NVDA in the QQQ index is approximately 42.69%.

👉 This shows you that only six tech stocks has been pushing the market up and holding at these levels, which cannot be sustainable.

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My levels on NQ for the week of May 15-19:

1. If bulls break above 13500 RS and hold it, my next major RS level s are 13700-14070.
2. If bears BO down the rising wedge and close a daily candle below 20ema, we may target 12950 SP.
3. If 12950 fails to hold, next major SP is 12800.
4. If 12800 fails to hold, I'd target 12650-12500-12300-12000.

Look at the size of the high volume node(HVN) around 13000 level, and the volume shelf between 12800-13300. If 12800 fails to hold, there is a huge volume gap down to 12300-12000.

See the MYM daily chart below👇

Click on this link to open the chart on a separate window: https://www.tradingview.com/x/EupIEY6u/​

DJI has been showing weakness in the past 2 weeks: it got rejected from 34200 major RS and SZ which also aligns with the ATH(all-time-high) trendline(TL) and the TL from March 2022 highs. Last week, it closed below 33700-33900 major RS levels, which marked a new LL below 33500.

​
My levels on MYM for the week of May 15-19:

1. Bulls need a daily close above 33900, and ideally above 34200 to form an uptrend and target 34500-35100 RS levels.
2. If bulls fail to hold 33100 SP level, I'd target 32600-32100-31700 until we form a decent reversal from one of these major SP levels.

See the RTY daily chart below👇

Click on this link to open the chart on a separate window:
​https://www.tradingview.com/x/u1jqC1TL/​

RTY has been stuck between 1700-1800 levels for over 5 weeks. In the past 3 weeks it got rejected from 1800 RS and the downward sloping TL multiple times, and in the past 2 weeks all the attempts to close above 20ema were failed, and we got wicked off the TL and 20ema.

​
My levels on RTY for the week of May 15-19:

1. If a daily candle breaks out the TL and closes any day above 20ema and 1770 level, we can retest 1800-1825 RS levels.
2. If bulls recapture 1825 RS and hold it, we can target 1900 RS and SZ.
3. If bulls fail to hold 1710 SP level, then bears will target 1685-1660-1645 SP levels.

Alright! Now let's see if we have any great setups for this week.

As I mentioned earlier, there are not many A+ setups and it's hard to trade when we have been in a very small range for 5-6 weeks. However, I found one A+ setup that I like it.

It's XOM. See the XOM daily chart below👇

Click on this link to open the chart on a separate window: https://www.tradingview.com/x/1mxTXilS/​

​
What do I see? What's my TA/reasoning?

1. Long-established upward sloping TL since Dec 2021.
2. Major SP and DZ.
3. HVN and volume shelf as SP.
4. RSI bullish divergence(DG) on daily and 4h time frames(TF).

​
XOM - My trading plan👇

1. My PTs (price targets) are: 109-114-116-118
2. My SL is the daily close below 104.30
3. R:R (risk to reward ratio) is 1:9.8

​
Strike & Expiration ⤵️

1. I'd choose an ITM or $1-2 OTM strikes with an exp. of at least 4-5 weeks out;
2. Or an exp. of 2-3 months out if I want to hold runners to reach higher PTs;
3. If you want to minimize your exposure & get lower premiums, enter debit spreads.

​

📌 Important notes before the entry👇

• Do not risk more than 3-5% of your account size.
• Make sure to trim some contracts along the way:
  a) scale out and take profits by trimming 1-2 contracts once you are up 20% and/or more.
  b) and/or raise your SL (stop-limit) to breakeven or higher depending on your gains (%).
  c) if it hits the SL, close the trade - do not hold.
• Never let a green trade go to red!
  Appreciate every $50-100 you make🙏

Manage your risk well & follow the plan🎯

XLE - The whole energy sector is at major SP and DZ.
​See the XOM daily chart below👇

Click on this link to open the chart on a separate window: https://www.tradingview.com/x/3pF5AJxq/​

​
It has almost the same TA as XOM:

1. Long-established upward sloping TL since Jul 2022.
2. Major SP and DZ.
3. HVN and volume shelf as SP.
4. RSI bullish divergence(DG) on daily and 4h time frames(TF).

​
My long-term targets are 83 then 87. You may enter XLE instead of XOM, it's up to you. I prefer XOM, as XLE represents the whole sector and does not move as much as XOM.

Thank you for reading my newsletter! I hope you found it informative and helpful. Please feel free to share it with your friends and network to spread the word and help others.

I hope you have a great week! Stay tuned for my next newsletter, which will be coming out next Sunday.

I appreciate your continued support! I am always working hard to provide you with the best possible content. Please let me know if you have any suggestions or feedback.

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​👉 p.s. As I mentioned in the beginning of this newsletter, I'm releasing something big on Wednesday!
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